Warren Buffett optimistic about U.S. future: “a housing recovery will likely begin within the next year”
Bank of Canada meets Tuesday and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged: "...the attention is going to turn to whether they drop any hints or start to sound a bit more upbeat and I think they will allow that the economic environment has improved a bit in the last couple of months.
· TSX +184.82 to 14,052.13 (Reuters) surged above 14,000 again as investors bought stocks across the board following steep declines earlier in the week over worries that high oil prices resulting from anti-government protests in Libya could derail the economic recovery. But sizable declines in the market have been met by investors buying into the dips amid strong economic data and corporate earnings.
· DOW +61.95 to 12,130.45.
· Dollar +.47c to 102.18c USD jumped higher against the greenback, to a three-year high.
· Oil +$.60 to $97.88 USD per barrel prices continued to be volatile as oil jumped over eight per cent in the last week amid investor concern that the recent wave of unrest in the Middle East and North Africa could affect other oil-rich countries in the region.
· Gold -$6.50 to $1409.30 per ounce.
· Canadian 5 yr bond yields -.02bps to 2.58. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.14%) is now above the comfort zone at 1.56. No fear of rates going up with these spreads.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Friday, February 25, 2011
Financial Update: February 25, 2011
CIBC, National Bank offer hints Canadians getting grip on debt...
"Analysts say the numbers are not necessarily a confirmation that Ottawa’s message has sunk in with consumers, forcing them to put the plastic away and pay down their monthly bills. Rather, a drop in loan loss provisions is generally linked to a stronger economy."
* TSX -88.88 to 13,867.31 (Reuters) as violence in Libya persuaded investors to take some profits from a market surge that has gone on pretty much without a break since the end of August. The only bright spot was from the financial sector in the wake of solid earnings reports from CIBC and National Bank who both beat estimates.
* DOW -37.28 to 12,068.50 amid mixed economic data.
* Dollar +.56c to 101.71c USD continued to benefit from sharply higher crude prices amid growing violence in Libya that has effectively split the country in two. This morning it was almost 2 full cents above parity on speculation of what the Bank of Canada will signal at its policy-setting meeting next week.
* Oil +$.82 to $97.28 USD per barrel Prices had moved as high as US$103.41 but starting shedding gains after a Saudi Arabian oil official said that his country and other OPEC states are willing and able to replace any lost Libyan oil, including crude of the same quality.
* Gold +$1.80 to $1415.80 per ounce.
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields -.01bps to 2.60. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.14%) is good and high in the comfort zone at 1.54.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
"Analysts say the numbers are not necessarily a confirmation that Ottawa’s message has sunk in with consumers, forcing them to put the plastic away and pay down their monthly bills. Rather, a drop in loan loss provisions is generally linked to a stronger economy."
* TSX -88.88 to 13,867.31 (Reuters) as violence in Libya persuaded investors to take some profits from a market surge that has gone on pretty much without a break since the end of August. The only bright spot was from the financial sector in the wake of solid earnings reports from CIBC and National Bank who both beat estimates.
* DOW -37.28 to 12,068.50 amid mixed economic data.
* Dollar +.56c to 101.71c USD continued to benefit from sharply higher crude prices amid growing violence in Libya that has effectively split the country in two. This morning it was almost 2 full cents above parity on speculation of what the Bank of Canada will signal at its policy-setting meeting next week.
* Oil +$.82 to $97.28 USD per barrel Prices had moved as high as US$103.41 but starting shedding gains after a Saudi Arabian oil official said that his country and other OPEC states are willing and able to replace any lost Libyan oil, including crude of the same quality.
* Gold +$1.80 to $1415.80 per ounce.
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields -.01bps to 2.60. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.14%) is good and high in the comfort zone at 1.54.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Financial Update: February 24, 2011
Canadian Homeownership Costs Ease for Second Consecutive Quarter: RBC Economics
"...thanks in part to slight decreases in five-year fixed mortgage rates and minimal home price appreciation across the country..."
Ask your MERIX DBD for the summary specific to your region.
* TSX -7.49 to 13,956.19 Capital flows out of stocks toward more defensive investments — such as precious metals and oil — accelerated throughout the day, suggesting that fears continue to grow over the potential impact of a revolt in Libya on the North African country's oil production.
* DOW -107.01 to 12,105.70.
* Dollar +.23c to 101.15c USD as the greenback lost traction against other major currencies and the loonie finally found backing from rising oil prices.
* Oil +$2.68 to $98.10 USD per barrel prices briefly surged past US$100 a barrel (highest since Oct 08) amid fears that escalating tensions in the oil-rich Middle East could cause a global crude shortage. Libya is the world's 12th-largest exporter of crude, accounting for two per cent of global daily output. Traders are also worried that the revolt could spread to other oil-producing countries in the region. Barclays Capital estimates that as much as one million barrels per day of Libyan production has been shut down so far.
* Gold +$12.90 to $1414 per ounce.
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets -.02bps to 2.61. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.14%) is good and high in the comfort zone at 1.53.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
"...thanks in part to slight decreases in five-year fixed mortgage rates and minimal home price appreciation across the country..."
Ask your MERIX DBD for the summary specific to your region.
* TSX -7.49 to 13,956.19 Capital flows out of stocks toward more defensive investments — such as precious metals and oil — accelerated throughout the day, suggesting that fears continue to grow over the potential impact of a revolt in Libya on the North African country's oil production.
* DOW -107.01 to 12,105.70.
* Dollar +.23c to 101.15c USD as the greenback lost traction against other major currencies and the loonie finally found backing from rising oil prices.
* Oil +$2.68 to $98.10 USD per barrel prices briefly surged past US$100 a barrel (highest since Oct 08) amid fears that escalating tensions in the oil-rich Middle East could cause a global crude shortage. Libya is the world's 12th-largest exporter of crude, accounting for two per cent of global daily output. Traders are also worried that the revolt could spread to other oil-producing countries in the region. Barclays Capital estimates that as much as one million barrels per day of Libyan production has been shut down so far.
* Gold +$12.90 to $1414 per ounce.
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets -.02bps to 2.61. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.14%) is good and high in the comfort zone at 1.53.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Financial Update: February 23, 2011
The “overexuberance” in consumer spending that lifted Canada out of the recession at the end of 2009 and early in 2010 is well behind us
• TSX -159.53 to 13,963.68 as jitters over the escalation of violence in the oil-rich Middle East sent crude prices soaring and stocks falling.
• DOW -178.46 to 12,212.79 mixed U.S. economic data showed home prices in a majority of major U.S. cities have fallen to their lowest levels since the housing bubble burst, but consumer confidence rose in February to its highest point in three years.
• Dollar -.73c to 100.92c USD strength in gold and oil, which helped prop up the Canadian dollar for much of the day, could not stop an afternoon retreat to the U.S. currency after Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi urged his supporters to attack protesters who are violently challenging his 42-year rule.
• Oil +$5.71 to $95.42 USD per barrel.
• Gold +$12.50 to $1401.10 per ounce.
• Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets were down .11bps to 2.63. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.14%) is high in the comfort zone at 1.51.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Financial Update: February 22, 2011
Canada's annual inflation rate slipped to a relatively tame 2.3 percent in January, bucking a trend which has seen several major nations struggle to keep rising prices under control.
Throw into the mix the current strength of the loonie and it doesn't look like the BOC has any real justification for increasing rates anytime soon.
The Toronto stock market was closed Monday for Ontario’s Family Day while New York markets were closed for the Presidents Day holiday. Here’s what happened Friday:
* TSX -13.04 to 14,123.11 as geopolitical concerns and mining stocks continued to decline amid a sharp drop in the price of copper this week.
* DOW +73.11 to 12,391.25
* Dollar -.11c to 101.42c USD as Statistics Canada reported month-to-month inflation rose 0.3 per cent in January over December, due in part to sharply rising gasoline prices.
* Oil -$.16 to $86.20 USD per barrel.
* Gold +$3.50 to $1388.60 per ounce.
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another -.03bps to 2.74. The spread (based on the NEW MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.14%) is now mid comfort zone at 1.40.
Throw into the mix the current strength of the loonie and it doesn't look like the BOC has any real justification for increasing rates anytime soon.
The Toronto stock market was closed Monday for Ontario’s Family Day while New York markets were closed for the Presidents Day holiday. Here’s what happened Friday:
* TSX -13.04 to 14,123.11 as geopolitical concerns and mining stocks continued to decline amid a sharp drop in the price of copper this week.
* DOW +73.11 to 12,391.25
* Dollar -.11c to 101.42c USD as Statistics Canada reported month-to-month inflation rose 0.3 per cent in January over December, due in part to sharply rising gasoline prices.
* Oil -$.16 to $86.20 USD per barrel.
* Gold +$3.50 to $1388.60 per ounce.
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another -.03bps to 2.74. The spread (based on the NEW MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.14%) is now mid comfort zone at 1.40.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Financial Update: February 18, 2011
Why do mortgage rates rise fast, fall slowly?
“Such behaviour by banks may have broader implications for Canada’s monetary policy”..
Canadian housing starts expected to stabilize this year and next
Economic growth and lower unemployment will prop up the need for new homes
* TSX +76.97 to 14,136.15 closed higher for a fourth consecutive session amid encouraging U.S. economic data and rising oil prices
* DOW +29.97 to 12,318.14
* Dollar +.unchanged to 101.53c USD at one point Thursday Canada's dollar hit its highest in nearly three years, spurred by cautious optimism on the U.S. economy from the U.S. Federal Reserve and buoyed by a firm oil price and a positive outlook for global equity markets, jumping as high as 101.87c. However a stronger dollar will not go unnoticed by the Bank of Canada.
* Oil +$1.37 to $86.36 USD per barrel as the index of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region jumped in February to its highest level since January 2004
* Gold +$10.00 to $1385.10 per ounce
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another -.01bps to 2.77. The spread (based on the NEW MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.14%) is now at the bottom of the comfort zone at 1.37.
(courtesy of the birthday girl...Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
“Such behaviour by banks may have broader implications for Canada’s monetary policy”..
Canadian housing starts expected to stabilize this year and next
Economic growth and lower unemployment will prop up the need for new homes
* TSX +76.97 to 14,136.15 closed higher for a fourth consecutive session amid encouraging U.S. economic data and rising oil prices
* DOW +29.97 to 12,318.14
* Dollar +.unchanged to 101.53c USD at one point Thursday Canada's dollar hit its highest in nearly three years, spurred by cautious optimism on the U.S. economy from the U.S. Federal Reserve and buoyed by a firm oil price and a positive outlook for global equity markets, jumping as high as 101.87c. However a stronger dollar will not go unnoticed by the Bank of Canada.
* Oil +$1.37 to $86.36 USD per barrel as the index of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region jumped in February to its highest level since January 2004
* Gold +$10.00 to $1385.10 per ounce
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another -.01bps to 2.77. The spread (based on the NEW MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.14%) is now at the bottom of the comfort zone at 1.37.
(courtesy of the birthday girl...Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Financial Update: February 17, 2011
TSX closes above 14,000 for first time since 2008. If you went to sleep in March 2008 and woke up today you would have no inkling of the roller coaster ride your investments had taken for the past 3 years…
Two articles on Canadian debt today… one saying the debt to income ratio has now reached 150%, while the other says that those with the ability to do so are moving high interest credit card debt to lower interest lines of credit.
* TSX +129.83 to 13,929.35 marched to its highest level, in 2 ½ years on firm energy and financial issues, as well as on a rally by Research In Motion , after Citigroup raised its rating on the BlackBerry maker by two notches. The TSX hasn’t been over 14,000 since July 2008. .
* DOW +61.53 to 12,288.17
* Dollar +.49c to 101.53c USD in spite of a disappointing read on the manufacturing sector.
* Oil +$.67 to $84.99 USD per barrel
* Gold +$1.00 to $1375.10 per ounce
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another +.01bps to 2.78. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.24%) is in mid comfort zone at 1.46.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Two articles on Canadian debt today… one saying the debt to income ratio has now reached 150%, while the other says that those with the ability to do so are moving high interest credit card debt to lower interest lines of credit.
* TSX +129.83 to 13,929.35 marched to its highest level, in 2 ½ years on firm energy and financial issues, as well as on a rally by Research In Motion , after Citigroup raised its rating on the BlackBerry maker by two notches. The TSX hasn’t been over 14,000 since July 2008. .
* DOW +61.53 to 12,288.17
* Dollar +.49c to 101.53c USD in spite of a disappointing read on the manufacturing sector.
* Oil +$.67 to $84.99 USD per barrel
* Gold +$1.00 to $1375.10 per ounce
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another +.01bps to 2.78. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.24%) is in mid comfort zone at 1.46.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Financial Update: February 16, 2011
3 ways to deal with rising mortgage rates...
A good article discussing the "other" factors borrowers should consider before choosing beween fixed and variable.
· TSX +18.58 to 13,929.35 as rising bullion prices sent gold stocks higher and financials advanced ahead of earnings reports from Canada's big banks in the coming weeks. Investors were also relieved to see lower than expected inflation from China.
· DOW -41.55 to 12,226.64
· Dollar -.12c to 101.04c USD
· Oil -$.49 to $84.32 USD per barrel amid sliding commodity prices
· Gold +$9.00 to $1374.10 per ounce its highest close in almost five weeks
· Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another +.01bps to 2.78. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.24%) is in mid comfort zone at 1.46.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
A good article discussing the "other" factors borrowers should consider before choosing beween fixed and variable.
· TSX +18.58 to 13,929.35 as rising bullion prices sent gold stocks higher and financials advanced ahead of earnings reports from Canada's big banks in the coming weeks. Investors were also relieved to see lower than expected inflation from China.
· DOW -41.55 to 12,226.64
· Dollar -.12c to 101.04c USD
· Oil -$.49 to $84.32 USD per barrel amid sliding commodity prices
· Gold +$9.00 to $1374.10 per ounce its highest close in almost five weeks
· Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another +.01bps to 2.78. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.24%) is in mid comfort zone at 1.46.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Financial Update: February 15, 2011
CMHC fires back at critics...
“Most importantly, the Canadian model withstood the test of the economic downturn, when housing markets in the U.S., United Kingdom, and Ireland failed...Simply put, CMHC felt it was important to have a discussion based on factual information.”
· TSX +144.01 to 13,910.77 surged one per cent as strong Chinese economic data helped push copper prices to a fresh record high.
· DOW -5.07 to 12,268.19 generally weak after U.S. President Barack Obama unveiled budget plans that include tax increases for oil, gas and coal producers, investment managers and U.S.-based multinational corporations. The plan would allow Bush-era tax cuts to expire at the end of 2012 for individuals making more than US$200,000 and married couples making more than US$250,000.
· Dollar -.18c to 101.16c USD as the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against a number of currencies including the loonie and the euro
· Oil -$.77 to $84.81 USD per barrel
· Gold +$4.70 to $1365.10 per ounce
· Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another +.01bps to 2.77. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.24%) is in mid comfort zone at 1.47.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
“Most importantly, the Canadian model withstood the test of the economic downturn, when housing markets in the U.S., United Kingdom, and Ireland failed...Simply put, CMHC felt it was important to have a discussion based on factual information.”
· TSX +144.01 to 13,910.77 surged one per cent as strong Chinese economic data helped push copper prices to a fresh record high.
· DOW -5.07 to 12,268.19 generally weak after U.S. President Barack Obama unveiled budget plans that include tax increases for oil, gas and coal producers, investment managers and U.S.-based multinational corporations. The plan would allow Bush-era tax cuts to expire at the end of 2012 for individuals making more than US$200,000 and married couples making more than US$250,000.
· Dollar -.18c to 101.16c USD as the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against a number of currencies including the loonie and the euro
· Oil -$.77 to $84.81 USD per barrel
· Gold +$4.70 to $1365.10 per ounce
· Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another +.01bps to 2.77. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.24%) is in mid comfort zone at 1.47.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Monday, February 14, 2011
Financial Update: Valentines Day Edition
December’s 30-year high exports surge pushes up expectations for Canada economy...
Canadian exporters had the best month in 30 years in December, in the most concrete indicator that the pick-up in demand in the United States is lifting a lot of boats north of the border as well.
* TSX -73.81 to 13,766.76 as energy stocks declined alongside oil prices which fell after Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak stepped down amid widespread protests.
* DOW +43.97to 12,273.26
* Dollar +.92c to 101.34c USD amid data showing that the country's trade balance with the rest of the world went from a deficit of $115 million in Nov to a surplus of $3 billion in Dec
* Oil -$1.15 to $85.58 USD per barrel falls to 10-week low as Egyptian risk premium unwinds
* Gold -$3.00 to $1362.50 per ounce
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another +.01bps to 2.76. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.24%) is in the high end of the comfort zone at 1.48.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Canadian exporters had the best month in 30 years in December, in the most concrete indicator that the pick-up in demand in the United States is lifting a lot of boats north of the border as well.
* TSX -73.81 to 13,766.76 as energy stocks declined alongside oil prices which fell after Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak stepped down amid widespread protests.
* DOW +43.97to 12,273.26
* Dollar +.92c to 101.34c USD amid data showing that the country's trade balance with the rest of the world went from a deficit of $115 million in Nov to a surplus of $3 billion in Dec
* Oil -$1.15 to $85.58 USD per barrel falls to 10-week low as Egyptian risk premium unwinds
* Gold -$3.00 to $1362.50 per ounce
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another +.01bps to 2.76. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.24%) is in the high end of the comfort zone at 1.48.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Friday, February 11, 2011
MERIX: Rental Income Clarified
We have one of the most flexible Rental income policies available! Our Webinar will show you the many ways we can use rental income to qualify applicants:
Financial Update: February 11, 2011
Housing market will be stable next two years: RBC...
”The Bank of Canada will likely raise interest rates by 100 basis points this year and another 150 basis points in 2012.” While everyone has speculated about variable rates increasing this year, this is the first time such an aggressive projection has been seen, putting prime rate at a possible 5.5% by 2012.
* TSX +56.27 to 13,840.57 clawed its way back from an earlier tumble to close higher Thursday as oil and copper prices advanced and investors took in a mixed bag of earnings.
* DOW -10.60 to 12,229.29
* Dollar -.19c to 100.42c USD recovering from early lows as oil prices shed morning losses and moved into positive territory. Also as the U.S. dollar strengthened amid data which showed that the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits plunged last week to the lowest level in nearly three years.
* Oil +$.02 to $86.73 USD per barrel
* Gold -$3.00 to $1362.50 per ounce
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields up another +.01bps to 2.75. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.24%) is in the high end of the comfort zone at 1.49.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
”The Bank of Canada will likely raise interest rates by 100 basis points this year and another 150 basis points in 2012.” While everyone has speculated about variable rates increasing this year, this is the first time such an aggressive projection has been seen, putting prime rate at a possible 5.5% by 2012.
* TSX +56.27 to 13,840.57 clawed its way back from an earlier tumble to close higher Thursday as oil and copper prices advanced and investors took in a mixed bag of earnings.
* DOW -10.60 to 12,229.29
* Dollar -.19c to 100.42c USD recovering from early lows as oil prices shed morning losses and moved into positive territory. Also as the U.S. dollar strengthened amid data which showed that the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits plunged last week to the lowest level in nearly three years.
* Oil +$.02 to $86.73 USD per barrel
* Gold -$3.00 to $1362.50 per ounce
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields up another +.01bps to 2.75. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.24%) is in the high end of the comfort zone at 1.49.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Financial Update: February 10, 2011
Flaherty warns of even higher mortgage rates after this week's jump
Flaherty doesn’t give any concrete reasons for this statement other than rates are currently low.
Canadian household debt high, but still manageable, banks conclude
“The high debt number ignores the fact that thanks to a "near-miraculous" recovery in stock prices, along with rock-solid house prices, household assets are also at near record levels. Assets to income rose to 420 per cent in the third quarter of 2010 and are still rising”
* TSX -108.22 to 13,7784.30
* DOW +6.74 to 12,239.89 Traders took in testimony from U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke . He told the House budget committee that the sharp drop in unemployment over the last two months is encouraging but cautioned that it will take several years for hiring to return to normal
* Dollar +.07c to 100.61c USD amid lower commodity prices and a lack of economic data that would move the market.
* Oil -$.23 to $86.71 USD per barrel Prices declined despite a U.S. government report showing a smaller than expected increase in crude supplies.
* Gold +$1.40 to $1365.50 per ounce
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another -.03bps to 2.74. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.24%) is now back into the high end of the comfort zone at 1.50.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Flaherty doesn’t give any concrete reasons for this statement other than rates are currently low.
Canadian household debt high, but still manageable, banks conclude
“The high debt number ignores the fact that thanks to a "near-miraculous" recovery in stock prices, along with rock-solid house prices, household assets are also at near record levels. Assets to income rose to 420 per cent in the third quarter of 2010 and are still rising”
* TSX -108.22 to 13,7784.30
* DOW +6.74 to 12,239.89 Traders took in testimony from U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke . He told the House budget committee that the sharp drop in unemployment over the last two months is encouraging but cautioned that it will take several years for hiring to return to normal
* Dollar +.07c to 100.61c USD amid lower commodity prices and a lack of economic data that would move the market.
* Oil -$.23 to $86.71 USD per barrel Prices declined despite a U.S. government report showing a smaller than expected increase in crude supplies.
* Gold +$1.40 to $1365.50 per ounce
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another -.03bps to 2.74. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.24%) is now back into the high end of the comfort zone at 1.50.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Financial Update: February 9, 2011
Here are two somewhat contradictory articles. On the one hand, Canadians are less optimistic about the economy. Yet the other article talks about how the housing market in 2011 might be stronger than forecasted.
Your success in 2011 may have more to do with how well you can convince potential customers that it s still a good time to buy or refinance.
Canadians less optimistic about economy than a year ago
Canada's housing market could prove more resilient in 2011 than predicted
· TSX +80.59 to 13,892.52
· DOW +71.52 to 12,233.15
· Dollar -.45c to 100.54c USD slid to a one-week low against the U.S. dollar as oil prices were undermined by news that Suez Canal operations were unaffected by strikes, calming concerns about Mideast supplies.
· Oil -$.54 to $86.94 USD per barrel after China increased key interest rates to help slow inflation in its growing economy. That raised concerns that the country's thirst for oil would diminish as well.
· Gold +$15.90 to $1364.10 per ounce
· Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another +.06bps to 2.77. The yield on Jan 31 was 2.49! That’s an increase of 28bps. in February. The spread (based on the NEW MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.24%) is now back into mid comfort zone at 1.47.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Your success in 2011 may have more to do with how well you can convince potential customers that it s still a good time to buy or refinance.
Canadians less optimistic about economy than a year ago
Canada's housing market could prove more resilient in 2011 than predicted
· TSX +80.59 to 13,892.52
· DOW +71.52 to 12,233.15
· Dollar -.45c to 100.54c USD slid to a one-week low against the U.S. dollar as oil prices were undermined by news that Suez Canal operations were unaffected by strikes, calming concerns about Mideast supplies.
· Oil -$.54 to $86.94 USD per barrel after China increased key interest rates to help slow inflation in its growing economy. That raised concerns that the country's thirst for oil would diminish as well.
· Gold +$15.90 to $1364.10 per ounce
· Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets up another +.06bps to 2.77. The yield on Jan 31 was 2.49! That’s an increase of 28bps. in February. The spread (based on the NEW MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 4.24%) is now back into mid comfort zone at 1.47.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Financial Update: February 8, 2011
Window closing’ on ultra-low mortgage rates...
“If there was any lingering doubt that the Bank will soon raise rates, last week’s jobs report erased them. The probability that the central bank will boost its key policy rate by May, jumped to almost 75%”. That applies to variable rate mortgages. Fixed rates are already on the move.
* TSX +20.08 to 13,791.85 as losses in the energy sector grew as oil prices slid for a third day.
* DOW +69.48 to 12,161.33
* Dollar -.18c to 100.99c USD amid some positive news from the housing sector. StatsCan reported that the value of Canadian building permits increased 2.4 % to $5.7 billion in December following two consecutive months of declines. The increase was mainly attributable to higher construction intentions for multi-family dwellings in Ontario.
* Oil -$1.50 to $89.03 USD per barrel energy sector was the biggest decliner as the risk premium for crude that resulted from almost two weeks of chaotic protests in Egypt unwound for a third day . A stronger U.S. dollar also deterred some buyers. Since oil is priced in U.S. dollars, a stronger greenback makes it more costly for buyers who use other currencies.
* Gold -$.80 to $1348.20 per ounce
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets -.03bps to 2.71. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 3.99%) is far below the comfort zone at 1.28. Fixed rates have already increased at two banks. Rate specials could end “effective immediately, so get any applications for 3.79% in early.
(courtesy of your friendly neighbourhood Merix DBD in Ontario Southwest)
“If there was any lingering doubt that the Bank will soon raise rates, last week’s jobs report erased them. The probability that the central bank will boost its key policy rate by May, jumped to almost 75%”. That applies to variable rate mortgages. Fixed rates are already on the move.
* TSX +20.08 to 13,791.85 as losses in the energy sector grew as oil prices slid for a third day.
* DOW +69.48 to 12,161.33
* Dollar -.18c to 100.99c USD amid some positive news from the housing sector. StatsCan reported that the value of Canadian building permits increased 2.4 % to $5.7 billion in December following two consecutive months of declines. The increase was mainly attributable to higher construction intentions for multi-family dwellings in Ontario.
* Oil -$1.50 to $89.03 USD per barrel energy sector was the biggest decliner as the risk premium for crude that resulted from almost two weeks of chaotic protests in Egypt unwound for a third day . A stronger U.S. dollar also deterred some buyers. Since oil is priced in U.S. dollars, a stronger greenback makes it more costly for buyers who use other currencies.
* Gold -$.80 to $1348.20 per ounce
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets -.03bps to 2.71. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 3.99%) is far below the comfort zone at 1.28. Fixed rates have already increased at two banks. Rate specials could end “effective immediately, so get any applications for 3.79% in early.
(courtesy of your friendly neighbourhood Merix DBD in Ontario Southwest)
Monday, February 7, 2011
Financial Update: February 7, 2011
Big Mortgages obtained with stolen ID
Very interesting info giving insight into why lenders and insurers often ask to see an appraisal, when by all appearances the client seems to be strong. Each of these mortgages was obtained for between 140% and 200% loan to value! These obviously weren’t listed on MLS. A reminder for your customers why lenders require additional due diligence on private purchases.
Beware the demographic timebomb
According to the author, this crisis in Egypt was sparked by one young unemployed Tunisian vendor, who left a suicide note to his mother on Facebook. His tragedy resonated, via the Internet, and changed the “narrative” from confusing political babble by authorities, to a simple story that millions identified with about a young man’s ordeal. “It used to be said that the hand that rocks the cradle rules the world. Now the cradle, armed with Facebook and social media tools, is taking control”.
· TSX -49.50 to 13,791.85 as oil and gold prices fell back on hopes for an end to the political protests in Egypt and an American dollar that strengthened despite data showing far less U.S. job creation last month than expected.
· DOW +29.89 to 12,092.15 Last week, job creation in the U.S. came in at a paltry 36,000, much lower than the 131,000 or so that economists had expected. However, the unemployment rate ran down from 9.4 per cent in December to nine per cent last month and job numbers were given the benefit of the doubt based on wicked winter weather
· Dollar +.26c to 101.17c USD The loonie has been higher after Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian economy generated just over 69,000 new jobs last month, spread across most of the country and evenly split between full-time and part-time. That was far higher than expectations for between 15,000 and 21,000 new jobs.
· Oil -$1.50 to $89.03 USD per barrel as hopes rose for an end to the political protests in Egypt.
· Gold -$4.00 to $1349.00 per ounce
· Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets +.08bps to 2.74. That’s 18bps in the last 3 days! The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 3.99%) has no room at all falling far below the comfort zone at 1.25. Fixed rates are at risk of increasing. Rate specials could end “effective immediately, so get any applications for 3.79% in early.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Very interesting info giving insight into why lenders and insurers often ask to see an appraisal, when by all appearances the client seems to be strong. Each of these mortgages was obtained for between 140% and 200% loan to value! These obviously weren’t listed on MLS. A reminder for your customers why lenders require additional due diligence on private purchases.
Beware the demographic timebomb
According to the author, this crisis in Egypt was sparked by one young unemployed Tunisian vendor, who left a suicide note to his mother on Facebook. His tragedy resonated, via the Internet, and changed the “narrative” from confusing political babble by authorities, to a simple story that millions identified with about a young man’s ordeal. “It used to be said that the hand that rocks the cradle rules the world. Now the cradle, armed with Facebook and social media tools, is taking control”.
· TSX -49.50 to 13,791.85 as oil and gold prices fell back on hopes for an end to the political protests in Egypt and an American dollar that strengthened despite data showing far less U.S. job creation last month than expected.
· DOW +29.89 to 12,092.15 Last week, job creation in the U.S. came in at a paltry 36,000, much lower than the 131,000 or so that economists had expected. However, the unemployment rate ran down from 9.4 per cent in December to nine per cent last month and job numbers were given the benefit of the doubt based on wicked winter weather
· Dollar +.26c to 101.17c USD The loonie has been higher after Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian economy generated just over 69,000 new jobs last month, spread across most of the country and evenly split between full-time and part-time. That was far higher than expectations for between 15,000 and 21,000 new jobs.
· Oil -$1.50 to $89.03 USD per barrel as hopes rose for an end to the political protests in Egypt.
· Gold -$4.00 to $1349.00 per ounce
· Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets +.08bps to 2.74. That’s 18bps in the last 3 days! The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 3.99%) has no room at all falling far below the comfort zone at 1.25. Fixed rates are at risk of increasing. Rate specials could end “effective immediately, so get any applications for 3.79% in early.
(courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Friday, February 4, 2011
Financial Update: February 4, 2011
Economy pumps out 69,200 jobs...
"Despite the gains, the unemployment rate rose to 7.8 per cent in January from 7.6 per cent a month earlier as more people searched for work..."
* TSX +161.06 to 13,841.35 A positive earnings report in the technology sector as well as merger and acquisition activity among gold miners helped push the Toronto stock market to its highest level since July 2008.
* DOW +20.29 to 12,062.26 benefitting from data showing fewer U.S. jobless insurance claims and higher than expected expansion in the American service sector.
* Dollar -.28c to 100.91c USD
* Oil -$.32 to $90.54 USD per barrel The unrest has left a significant mark on oil prices, which are up almost six per cent over the past week
* Gold +$20.90 to $1353.00 per ounce as continued unrest in Egypt helped push investors to safety.
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets +.04bps to 2.66. That’s 10bps in the last 2 days. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 3.99%) has fallen below the comfort zone at 1.33. Fixed rates are at risk of increasing. Rate specials could end soon so get any applications for 3.79% in early.
"Despite the gains, the unemployment rate rose to 7.8 per cent in January from 7.6 per cent a month earlier as more people searched for work..."
* TSX +161.06 to 13,841.35 A positive earnings report in the technology sector as well as merger and acquisition activity among gold miners helped push the Toronto stock market to its highest level since July 2008.
* DOW +20.29 to 12,062.26 benefitting from data showing fewer U.S. jobless insurance claims and higher than expected expansion in the American service sector.
* Dollar -.28c to 100.91c USD
* Oil -$.32 to $90.54 USD per barrel The unrest has left a significant mark on oil prices, which are up almost six per cent over the past week
* Gold +$20.90 to $1353.00 per ounce as continued unrest in Egypt helped push investors to safety.
* Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets +.04bps to 2.66. That’s 10bps in the last 2 days. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 3.99%) has fallen below the comfort zone at 1.33. Fixed rates are at risk of increasing. Rate specials could end soon so get any applications for 3.79% in early.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Financial Update: February 3, 2011
Some tips for those of you that might work from time to time out of your home "office".
- TSX -32.33 to 13,680.29 as investors took in a rising level of violence as pro-government and anti-government protesters clashed in Egypt.
- DOW +1.81 to 12,041.97 .
- Dollar +.27c to 101.19c USD
- Oil +$.09 to $90.86 USD per barrel Prices have ran ahead more than six per cent over the past four sessions on worries that Egyptian unrest could result in a closure of the Suez Canal.
- Gold -$8.20 to $1332.10 per ounce
Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets +.06bps to 2.62. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 3.99%) has fallen to the bottom of the comfort zone at 1.37. (Please note, as of 9:25am ET this morning, yields are up an additonal 6 bps to 2.68)
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Financial Update: Groundhog Day Edition
Spring will arrive early!
“Are there billions of dollars of extra money available for big new spending programs? No, and there will be no big new spending programs in this budget.”
Iceland lowers key lending rate by a quarter point to 4.25 pct as financial system steadies.
The rate peaked at 18 per cent in October 2008, when the country's banking system collapsed under the strain of the worldwide credit squeeze.
· TSX +160.63 to 13,712.62 as stocks got a lift from a strong showing in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
· DOW +148.23 to 12,040.16 Traders were pleased with data showing that the U.S. factory sector expanded in January at the fastest pace in seven years, as manufacturers reported a sharp jump in new orders causing the Dow to close above 12,000 for the first time since June 2008.
· Dollar +1.07c to 100.92c USD surged more than a cent as risk aversion receded. The U.S. dollar weakened against other currencies, including the euro, as Standard & Poor’s gave Spain a welcome boost by affirming its AA credit rating. The move was another sign that the government debt crisis that threatened to sink the European currency has come off the boil, at least for the moment. S&P became the second major credit agency in as many days to downgrade its rating on Egypt
· Oil -$1.42 to $90.77 USD per barrel oil prices relaxed however supply worries and data showing strong expansion in the U.S. manufacturing sector last month pushed copper up nine cents to a record close of US$4.55 a pound
· Gold +$5.80 to $1340.30 per ounce
· Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets +.07bps to 2.56. The spread (based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 3.99%) is centred in the comfort zone at 1.43.
(Courtesy of Barb Morgan, DBD Ontario Southwest)
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Financial Update: February 1, 2011
Everyone is an expert in Mortgages these days:
CD Howe: Reduce CMHC role in mortgage insurance
"Ottawa should adopt new legislation ... legally requiring the CMHC to comply with guidelines laid down by the federal regulator."
· TSX +114.41 to 13,551.99 The energy sector led the way to a strong advance on the TSX as massive political unrest in Egypt raised worries about a disruption in oil supplies and pushed crude prices higher.
· DOW +68.23 to 11,823.70 also higher amid a strong earnings report from energy giant ExxonMobil
· Dollar -.04c to 99.85c USD as investors sought safety in the U.S. dollar and the loonie closed below parity for a second day in a row, despite data from Statistics Canada showing that gross domestic product grew 0.4 per cent in November, better than the 0.3 per cent reading that economists had expected.
· Oil +$2.85 to $92.19 USD per barrel Crude has surged almost eight per cent over the last two sessions on worries that the Suez Canal, a key route for oil tankers and cargo ships, may be closed and that the unrest could spread as protests continued against the rule of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
· Gold -$7.20 to $1334.50 per ounce
· Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets -.03bps to 2.49. The spread (based on the NEW MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 3.99%) has moved to the high end of the comfort zone at 1.50.
The Canadian Press Investors were also pleased with data showing that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.7 per cent in December, the sixth straight monthly increase. The Commerce Department also reported that households saw their incomes rise 0.4 per cent, the same as November. For all of 2010, consumers boosted spending 3.5 per cent. That was the best performance since a 5.2 percent rise in 2007, before the recession began.
CD Howe: Reduce CMHC role in mortgage insurance
"Ottawa should adopt new legislation ... legally requiring the CMHC to comply with guidelines laid down by the federal regulator."
· TSX +114.41 to 13,551.99 The energy sector led the way to a strong advance on the TSX as massive political unrest in Egypt raised worries about a disruption in oil supplies and pushed crude prices higher.
· DOW +68.23 to 11,823.70 also higher amid a strong earnings report from energy giant ExxonMobil
· Dollar -.04c to 99.85c USD as investors sought safety in the U.S. dollar and the loonie closed below parity for a second day in a row, despite data from Statistics Canada showing that gross domestic product grew 0.4 per cent in November, better than the 0.3 per cent reading that economists had expected.
· Oil +$2.85 to $92.19 USD per barrel Crude has surged almost eight per cent over the last two sessions on worries that the Suez Canal, a key route for oil tankers and cargo ships, may be closed and that the unrest could spread as protests continued against the rule of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
· Gold -$7.20 to $1334.50 per ounce
· Canadian 5 yr bond yields markets -.03bps to 2.49. The spread (based on the NEW MERIX 5 yr rate published rate of 3.99%) has moved to the high end of the comfort zone at 1.50.
The Canadian Press Investors were also pleased with data showing that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.7 per cent in December, the sixth straight monthly increase. The Commerce Department also reported that households saw their incomes rise 0.4 per cent, the same as November. For all of 2010, consumers boosted spending 3.5 per cent. That was the best performance since a 5.2 percent rise in 2007, before the recession began.
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